Track Record
Has this read ever been right? Below, the composite is reconstructed back to 1997 from deep-history proxy metrics (Shiller CAPE & real-EPS growth, Nasdaq/S&P stretch, AAII sentiment, FINRA margin debt, FRED rates & fundamentals) and run through the exact same point-in-time engine the live score uses.
- Scores before 2023-06-01 are reconstructed from proxies; after that date the live metrics take over. The splice is a genuine methodology change and is marked on the chart.
- Every proxy is an index-level series — none is rebuilt from today's S&P constituents, so there is no survivorship bias.
- This is a valuation-aware standing-risk monitor, not a crash timer: it flagged the big bubbles and stayed low in genuinely cheap markets, but reads elevated through historically expensive eras too.
Event history
Reconstructed composite at each event, and the S&P 500 drawdown over the following 12 months. Crashes should read elevated before the fall; calm periods should read low with shallow drawdowns.
| Event | Date | Reconstructed score | Next-12mo S&P drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dot-com peak | 2000-03-01 | 69 Elevated | -10.1% |
| Global Financial Crisis | 2007-10-01 | 56 Elevated | -28.5% |
| COVID crash | 2020-02-01 | 61 Elevated | -30.6% |
| 2022 bear market | 2022-01-01 | 55 Elevated | -24.9% |
| Calm — mid-2004 | 2004-06-01 | 40 Elevated | -5.2% |
| Calm — mid-2013 | 2013-06-01 | 53 Elevated | -3.5% |
| Calm — mid-2017 | 2017-06-01 | 56 Elevated | -0.8% |
All scores reconstructed. Drawdown = peak-to-trough S&P 500 close over the 12 months after each date.
Reconstructed composite, full history
live · reconstructed (pre-2023-06-01)