◆ Market Correction Risk Scorecard
Daily Edition · Updated mon aug 31 10:00pm ET
50
/ 100 · Composite Risk
LOW

25th percentile of its own history

Assesses the probability of a 10%+ S&P 500 correction over the next 6–12 months.
▲ +3 7-day ▲ +3 30-day
See how this read performed before past corrections →
Today’s Read

Composite risk reads 50 of 100 — elevated, climbing 3 points this week.

Technology Concentration Risk is the loudest signal at 59 (yellow).

Market Sentiment Indicators is the calmest at 41.

1 of 4 Burry conditions are firing; watch for the rest to align.

The Trajectory

Composite risk over time, against the calm / elevated / stressed regimes. Flags mark the days a signal flipped color.

Overlay markets ↗ indexed to 100 at window start
Steady · 0–40 Elevated · 41–69 Stressed · 70–100

From the Headlines

themes moving risk
Warsh Says Inflation Isn't Slowing | The Close 8/28/2026 bearish fed Bloomberg Technology Dick’s Sporting Goods’ stock is having its worst day ever, as sneakers aren’t selling without deeper discounts bearish recession MarketWatch.com - Top Stories Tariffs Could Bring Canada Auto "To Its Knees" bearish macro Bloomberg Markets Anthropic to Pay Nscale $45 Billion for AI Computing Power bullish ai Bloomberg Technology India AI Data Center Firm Orders 9,000 Nvidia Vera Rubin Systems bullish ai Bloomberg Technology

Burry Trigger

1/4 firing

The single most dangerous combination. When all four light, history rhymes.

◇ NVDA revenue decelerating
◇ Mag-4 capex rolling over
◇ Earnings & Expectations RED
◆ 10-Year yield above 4.5%

The Six Levels

faint line = composite

Each level rolls its metrics into a 0–100 sub-score (weight is its share of the composite). The faint line on each card is the overall composite, so you can see whether a level is moving with or against the market. Tap a card for the detail.

L1 YELLOW
Earnings & Expectations
45/100
▲ Worsening +3
35% weight
L2 YELLOW
Technology Concentration Risk
59/100
▲ Worsening +2
25% weight
L3 YELLOW
Liquidity Conditions
52/100
▼ Improving -4
15% weight
L4 YELLOW
Economic Fundamentals
42/100
▲ Worsening +20
10% weight
L5 YELLOW
Market Breadth
55/100
▲ Worsening +6
10% weight
L6 YELLOW
Market Sentiment Indicators
41/100
▼ Improving -8
5% weight

What Changed

Composite 47→50 over 30 days (+3)

  • Economic Fundamentals +2
  • Earnings & Expectations +1
  • Technology Concentration Risk +1
  • Market Breadth +1
  • Liquidity Conditions -0
  • Market Sentiment Indicators -0
Signal changes · last 14 days
  1. 2026-08-31 bank_consumer_health_score shifted RED → YELLOW 3 bank calls
  2. 2026-08-31 mag7_eps_estimate_90d_delta shifted RED → GREEN 7 names, 90d Δ
  3. 2026-08-31 Level 6 shifted GREEN → YELLOW level 6 flip
  4. 2026-08-28 Level 6 shifted YELLOW → GREEN level 6 flip
  5. 2026-08-26 recession_mention_velocity shifted YELLOW → GREEN 2/7d vs 10/30d
  6. 2026-08-26 recession_mention_velocity shifted GREEN → YELLOW 3/7d vs 10/30d
  7. 2026-08-25 recession_mention_velocity shifted YELLOW → GREEN 3/7d vs 12/30d
  8. 2026-08-25 Level 4 shifted GREEN → YELLOW level 4 flip
  9. 2026-08-25 bank_consumer_health_score shifted STALE → RED 3 bank calls
  10. 2026-08-25 Level 1 shifted GREEN → YELLOW level 1 flip
  11. 2026-08-25 mag7_eps_estimate_90d_delta shifted STALE → RED 7 names, 90d Δ
  12. 2026-08-24 eps_revision_breadth_sp500 shifted STALE → GREEN 5886↑/5066↓ across 490
  13. 2026-08-23 recession_mention_velocity shifted RED → YELLOW 4/7d vs 12/30d
  14. 2026-08-23 recession_mention_velocity shifted YELLOW → RED 4/7d vs 12/30d
  15. 2026-08-21 bank_credit_stress_score shifted RED → YELLOW 2 bank calls
  16. 2026-08-21 recession_mention_velocity shifted GREEN → YELLOW 4/7d vs 13/30d
  17. 2026-08-20 Level 6 shifted GREEN → YELLOW level 6 flip
  18. 2026-08-20 Level 6 shifted YELLOW → GREEN level 6 flip
  19. 2026-08-20 recession_mention_velocity shifted YELLOW → GREEN 2/7d vs 11/30d
  20. 2026-08-19 recession_mention_velocity shifted GREEN → YELLOW 3/7d vs 11/30d
  21. 2026-08-18 Level 6 shifted GREEN → YELLOW level 6 flip
  22. 2026-08-18 bank_credit_stress_score shifted STALE → RED 2 bank calls