◆ Market Correction Risk Scorecard
Daily Edition · Updated sat oct 31 10:00am ET
55
/ 100 · Composite Risk
MODERATE

46th percentile of its own history

Assesses the probability of a 10%+ S&P 500 correction over the next 6–12 months.
— 0 7-day ▲ +2 30-day
See how this read performed before past corrections →
Today’s Read

Composite risk reads 55 of 100 — elevated.

Liquidity Conditions is the loudest signal at 62 (yellow).

Economic Fundamentals is the calmest at 33.

1 of 4 Burry conditions are firing; watch for the rest to align.

The Trajectory

Composite risk over time, against the calm / elevated / stressed regimes. Flags mark the days a signal flipped color.

Overlay markets ↗ indexed to 100 at window start
Steady · 0–40 Elevated · 41–69 Stressed · 70–100

From the Headlines

themes moving risk
The stock market’s best forecasting tool says returns over the next 10 years will be dismal bearish macro MarketWatch.com - Top Stories Anthropic IPO warns its AI could blackmail people, become sentient, end humanity bearish ai Ars Technica - All content One-Day Wipeout Tops 60% For the Hardest-Hit Brazilian Stocks bearish recession Bloomberg Markets Microsoft’s AI Bet Pays Off bullish ai Bloomberg Technology FuriosaAI Quadruples Valuation to $2.9 Billion in Nvidia Chase bullish ai Bloomberg Technology

Burry Trigger

1/4 firing

The single most dangerous combination. When all four light, history rhymes.

◇ NVDA revenue decelerating
◇ Mag-4 capex rolling over
◇ Earnings & Expectations RED
◆ 10-Year yield above 4.5%

The Six Levels

faint line = composite

Each level rolls its metrics into a 0–100 sub-score (weight is its share of the composite). The faint line on each card is the overall composite, so you can see whether a level is moving with or against the market. Tap a card for the detail.

L1 YELLOW
Earnings & Expectations
58/100
▲ Worsening +12
35% weight
L2 YELLOW
Technology Concentration Risk
56/100
▼ Improving -2
25% weight
L3 YELLOW
Liquidity Conditions
62/100
▼ Improving -1
15% weight
L4 GREEN
Economic Fundamentals
33/100
▼ Improving -8
10% weight
L5 YELLOW
Market Breadth
55/100
▼ Improving -13
10% weight
L6 YELLOW
Market Sentiment Indicators
48/100
— Flat
5% weight

What Changed

Composite 53→55 over 30 days (+2)

  • Earnings & Expectations +4
  • Market Breadth -1
  • Economic Fundamentals -1
  • Technology Concentration Risk -0
  • Liquidity Conditions -0
  • Market Sentiment Indicators +0
Signal changes · last 14 days
  1. 2026-10-31 credit_spread_hy shifted GREEN → YELLOW FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2
  2. 2026-10-30 Level 1 shifted RED → YELLOW level 1 flip
  3. 2026-10-30 avg_earnings_surprise_pct shifted RED → YELLOW 1 reports
  4. 2026-10-30 earnings_beat_rate_qtr shifted RED → GREEN 1/1 beat
  5. 2026-10-30 eps_revision_breadth_sp500 shifted YELLOW → GREEN 2959↑/2621↓ across 492
  6. 2026-10-30 skew_index shifted GREEN → YELLOW ^SKEW close
  7. 2026-10-30 vix_term_structure shifted GREEN → YELLOW VIX9D/VIX3M
  8. 2026-10-30 vix shifted GREEN → YELLOW ^VIX close
  9. 2026-10-29 Level 1 shifted YELLOW → RED level 1 flip
  10. 2026-10-29 avg_earnings_surprise_pct shifted GREEN → RED 1 reports
  11. 2026-10-29 earnings_beat_rate_qtr shifted GREEN → RED 0/1 beat
  12. 2026-10-29 credit_spread_hy shifted YELLOW → GREEN FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2
  13. 2026-10-28 skew_index shifted STALE → GREEN ^SKEW close
  14. 2026-10-27 recession_mention_velocity shifted YELLOW → GREEN 2/7d vs 10/30d
  15. 2026-10-27 ai_monetization_tracker shifted GREEN → RED 6 calls
  16. 2026-10-27 guidance_raise_lower_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 2 raise / 0 lower
  17. 2026-10-27 transcript_sentiment_composite shifted GREEN → YELLOW 6 calls
  18. 2026-10-27 vix_term_structure shifted YELLOW → GREEN VIX9D/VIX3M
  19. 2026-10-27 recession_mention_velocity shifted RED → YELLOW 3/7d vs 10/30d
  20. 2026-10-26 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 239 pos / 104 neg
  21. 2026-10-26 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 237 pos / 105 neg
  22. 2026-10-26 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 237 pos / 104 neg
  23. 2026-10-26 ai_monetization_tracker shifted RED → GREEN 25 calls
  24. 2026-10-26 guidance_raise_lower_ratio shifted RED → GREEN 12 raise / 1 lower
  25. 2026-10-26 transcript_sentiment_composite shifted YELLOW → GREEN 25 calls
  26. 2026-10-26 capex_to_ocf_meta shifted YELLOW → RED META TTM capex/OCF
  27. 2026-10-26 vix shifted YELLOW → GREEN ^VIX close
  28. 2026-10-24 recession_mention_velocity shifted YELLOW → RED 4/7d vs 11/30d
  29. 2026-10-23 recession_mention_velocity shifted RED → YELLOW 4/7d vs 12/30d
  30. 2026-10-23 vix shifted GREEN → YELLOW ^VIX close
  31. 2026-10-23 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → RED SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  32. 2026-10-23 recession_mention_velocity shifted YELLOW → RED 5/7d vs 13/30d
  33. 2026-10-22 mag7_eps_estimate_90d_delta shifted YELLOW → GREEN 7 names, 90d Δ
  34. 2026-10-22 vix_term_structure shifted GREEN → YELLOW VIX9D/VIX3M
  35. 2026-10-22 recession_mention_velocity shifted RED → YELLOW 4/7d vs 12/30d
  36. 2026-10-22 sector_dispersion shifted RED → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  37. 2026-10-22 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN RSP/SPY
  38. 2026-10-21 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → RED SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  39. 2026-10-21 mag7_eps_estimate_90d_delta shifted GREEN → YELLOW 7 names, 90d Δ
  40. 2026-10-21 sector_dispersion shifted RED → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  41. 2026-10-21 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → RED SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  42. 2026-10-21 sector_dispersion shifted RED → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  43. 2026-10-21 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW RSP/SPY
  44. 2026-10-21 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → RED SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  45. 2026-10-20 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN RSP/SPY
  46. 2026-10-20 ai_monetization_tracker shifted GREEN → RED 6 calls
  47. 2026-10-20 guidance_raise_lower_ratio shifted GREEN → RED 2 raise / 0 lower
  48. 2026-10-20 transcript_sentiment_composite shifted GREEN → YELLOW 6 calls
  49. 2026-10-20 vix_term_structure shifted YELLOW → GREEN VIX9D/VIX3M
  50. 2026-10-20 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW RSP/SPY
  51. 2026-10-20 sector_dispersion shifted RED → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  52. 2026-10-20 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN RSP/SPY
  53. 2026-10-20 recession_mention_velocity shifted YELLOW → RED 4/7d vs 11/30d
  54. 2026-10-20 credit_spread_hy shifted GREEN → YELLOW FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2
  55. 2026-10-19 ai_monetization_tracker shifted RED → GREEN 25 calls
  56. 2026-10-19 guidance_raise_lower_ratio shifted RED → GREEN 12 raise / 1 lower
  57. 2026-10-19 transcript_sentiment_composite shifted YELLOW → GREEN 25 calls
  58. 2026-10-19 vix_term_structure shifted GREEN → YELLOW VIX9D/VIX3M