◆ Market Correction Risk Scorecard
Daily Edition · Updated thu jul 02 6:30pm ET
48
/ 100 · Composite Risk
ELEVATED
Assesses the probability of a 10%+ S&P 500 correction over the next 6–12 months.
▼ -1 7-day ▼ -2 30-day
See how this read performed before past corrections →
Today’s Read

Composite risk reads 48 of 100 — elevated, easing 1 point this week.

Technology Concentration Risk is the loudest signal at 57 (yellow).

Economic Fundamentals is the calmest at 30.

None of the four Burry conditions are firing.

The Trajectory

Composite risk over time, against the calm / elevated / stressed regimes. Flags mark the days a signal flipped color.

Overlay markets ↗ indexed to 100 at window start
Steady · 0–40 Elevated · 41–69 Stressed · 70–100

From the Headlines

themes moving risk
Volkswagen’s stock nears a 15-year low on reports of massive planned layoffs bearish layoff MarketWatch.com - Top Stories Microsoft’s $570 Billion Rout Sets Up Its Worst Month Since 2000 bearish recession Bloomberg Markets Smart lock maker Level has been gutted and its founders are out bearish layoff The Verge European Stocks Cap Best Quarter Since 2020 With Record High bullish macro Bloomberg Markets US Stocks Head for Best Quarter in Six Years | The Pulse 6/30/2026 bullish macro Bloomberg Markets

Burry Trigger

0/4 firing

The single most dangerous combination. When all four light, history rhymes.

◇ NVDA revenue decelerating
◇ Mag-4 capex rolling over
◇ Earnings & Expectations RED
◇ 10-Year yield above 4.5%

The Six Levels

faint line = composite

Each level rolls its metrics into a 0–100 sub-score (weight is its share of the composite). The faint line on each card is the overall composite, so you can see whether a level is moving with or against the market. Tap a card for the detail.

L1 YELLOW
Earnings & Expectations
48/100
▲ Worsening +8
35% weight
L2 YELLOW
Technology Concentration Risk
57/100
▼ Improving -10
25% weight
L3 YELLOW
Liquidity Conditions
48/100
▲ Worsening +4
15% weight
L4 GREEN
Economic Fundamentals
30/100
▼ Improving -5
10% weight
L5 YELLOW
Market Breadth
47/100
▼ Improving -24
10% weight
L6 YELLOW
Market Sentiment Indicators
51/100
▲ Worsening +10
5% weight

What Changed

Composite 50→48 over 30 days (-2)

  • Earnings & Expectations +3
  • Technology Concentration Risk -2
  • Market Breadth -2
  • Liquidity Conditions +0
  • Economic Fundamentals -0
  • Market Sentiment Indicators +0
Signal changes · last 14 days
  1. 2026-07-01 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 190 pos / 80 neg
  2. 2026-07-01 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → GREEN SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  3. 2026-06-30 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted RED → YELLOW 218 pos / 90 neg
  4. 2026-06-30 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 219 pos / 91 neg
  5. 2026-06-30 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted RED → YELLOW 221 pos / 91 neg
  6. 2026-06-30 sector_dispersion shifted GREEN → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  7. 2026-06-30 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → GREEN SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  8. 2026-06-30 sector_dispersion shifted GREEN → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  9. 2026-06-30 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 216 pos / 90 neg
  10. 2026-06-30 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted RED → YELLOW 215 pos / 88 neg
  11. 2026-06-30 treasury_10y shifted YELLOW → GREEN FRED DGS10
  12. 2026-06-29 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 235 pos / 95 neg
  13. 2026-06-29 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted RED → YELLOW 232 pos / 92 neg
  14. 2026-06-29 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 229 pos / 92 neg
  15. 2026-06-28 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted RED → YELLOW 226 pos / 90 neg
  16. 2026-06-26 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → RED 203 pos / 77 neg
  17. 2026-06-26 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → GREEN SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  18. 2026-06-26 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 200 pos / 69 neg
  19. 2026-06-26 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 202 pos / 68 neg
  20. 2026-06-26 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 199 pos / 68 neg
  21. 2026-06-26 treasury_10y_real shifted RED → YELLOW FRED DFII10
  22. 2026-06-25 news_recession_mention_freq shifted YELLOW → GREEN 7/1606 articles
  23. 2026-06-25 sector_dispersion shifted GREEN → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  24. 2026-06-25 news_recession_mention_freq shifted GREEN → YELLOW 8/1603 articles
  25. 2026-06-25 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → GREEN SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  26. 2026-06-25 sector_dispersion shifted GREEN → YELLOW SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  27. 2026-06-24 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 180 pos / 61 neg
  28. 2026-06-24 sector_dispersion shifted YELLOW → GREEN SPDR sectors YTD stdev
  29. 2026-06-24 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 169 pos / 59 neg
  30. 2026-06-24 treasury_10y_real shifted YELLOW → RED FRED DFII10
  31. 2026-06-24 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN 169 pos / 57 neg
  32. 2026-06-23 news_ai_sentiment_ratio shifted GREEN → YELLOW 165 pos / 57 neg
  33. 2026-06-23 equal_vs_cap_weight_ratio shifted YELLOW → GREEN RSP/SPY
  34. 2026-06-19 initial_claims_4wk shifted YELLOW → GREEN FRED ICSA