Market Correction Risk Scorecard

Liquidity Conditions 48.3 · YELLOW

Level 3 · weight 15%

Metrics

MetricValueZStatusSource
10Y Real Yield (TIPS)
10-Year TIPS yield. Real cost of capital.
2.20 % 1.28 YELLOW FRED:DFII10
Investment-Grade Credit Spread (OAS)
ICE BofA US Corporate OAS. Lower-frequency stress signal.
0.76 bps -1.06 GREEN FRED:BAMLC0A0CM
High-Yield Credit Spread (OAS)
ICE BofA US High Yield OAS. Credit often cracks before equities.
2.83 bps -0.83 GREEN FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2
10Y Treasury Yield
10-Year Treasury constant maturity nominal yield. Higher rates compete with equities.
4.38 % 0.49 GREEN FRED:DGS10
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)
10Y minus 2Y spread. Inversion historically precedes recessions.
30.00 bps -0.43 GREEN FRED:DGS10-DGS2